Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's market outlook highlights
New homes: New homes market in Greater Toronto Area (GTA) sales acivity will rise slighly this year in comparion to 2008. More project launches, an improving employment situation for younger workers and a shift towards lower-priced housing types in the second half of next year will boost new high-rise sales in 2010 by 17 percent to 13,500 units.
Housing starts: Housing stats across all dwelling types will rise by 26 percent in 2010 to 36,140 units, and will generally move higher over the next few years to meet the housing requirements of a rising population.
Semis and row houses to become more popular: A strong presence of first-time buyers this year and a slew of new sales sites across the GTA has raised the popularity of semi-detached and row homes. Demand for semis and rows is expected to sustain throughout 2010 as buyers continue to look for lower-priced options.
Hi-Rise: There are currently about 10,000 units in preconstruction projects that are at least 70 percent sold. Some will begin construction this year, but the majority will start in 2010. High-rise starts will rise by 17 percent in 2010 to 17,200 units – the second highest level this decade.
Resale market: The 82,000 homes sold this year will be up seven percent from 2008 and well above the average for this decade. Next year, sales will moderate slightly to 78,000 units and become aligned with the historical ten-year average. While the market will experience more balanced conditions next year, the average price for 2010 will grow by five per cent compared to the 2009 average. Affordability will moderate slightly next year, but will remain in check due to slow price growth and incremental interest rate increases. The average mortgage payment will rise to $2,318, still below 2008 and 2007 levels.
Balanced market: From seller's market in 2009 to balanced market conditions in 2010. This year real estate market has been categorized as a seller's market (sales-to-new listings ratio just above 60 per cent – characterized by a rise in multiple offer scenarios and shorter days on market averages. More supply is expected to come on the market next year as confidence amongst sellers improves and prices move higher. New listings will bring the market into balanced territory next year and ease price pressures.
Migration to rise next year: A stabilization in economic activity and more employment opportunities next year will elevate immigration and lift net migration numbers by five percent. Fewer households will move outside the GTA to other parts of the province as job growth in the area will perform better and improved housing affordability conditions will allow the GTA to retain more residents.