Fall 2022 Housing Market Outlook – Report by RE/MAX
RE/MAX Canada Network expects Canadian housing market prices to go down by 2.2% this Fall
RE/MAX’s 2022 Fall Canadian Housing Market Outlook anticipates Canadian home prices to lower by 2.2% this Fall (September-December) due to high inflation, rising interest rates and economic uncertainty.
These factors have impacted consumer confidence and market activity. Resisting the downward trend, six out of 30 Canadian housing markets analyzed are likely to experience modest price appreciation between 1.5 and 7%. Otherwise, RE/MAX expects a decline in sales this Fall, in 24 out of 30 markets surveyed.
- 44% of Canadians have temporarily put their home-buying on hold due to high interest rates.
- 34% say they won’t hold on purchasing a home for the foreseeable future.
- 41% of Canadians will wait to purchase/sell their home in fall 2022 due to recession worries.
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What can we expect in 2023?
Remainder of 2022 will see some inaction and lack of confidence due to rising interest rates for both home buyers and sellers.
“While we are still facing significant housing supply shortages across the Canadian housing market, many regions are experiencing softer sales activity given recent interest rate hikes. This provides some reprieve from the unprecedented demand and unsustainable price increases we’ve seen across Canada through 2021 and in early 2022,” says Christopher Alexander, President at RE/MAX Canada. “However, the current lull in the market is only temporary. Until housing supply increases, these ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ cycles will likely be a recurring event.”
However, there is also a sense that economic conditions will improve by mid-2023 and activity will resume. “As a long-term investment, the Canadian housing market continues to yield solid returns. If someone needs to buy or sell, regardless of those cyclical peaks and valleys, being informed and working with an experienced real estate professional can help consumers clarify some of those unknowns and make the best decision possible,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada.
|REGION||AVG. SALES PRICE|
Jan to Aug
|YOY (%)||NO. OF SALES|
Jan to Aug
|YOY (%)||FALL 2022 SALE PRICE ESTIMATE||FALL 2022 UNIT SALES ESTIMATE|
What is the specific situation across Ontario
Lower sales volume
Many markets including Oakville, Windsor, Barrie, Durham, Kingston and Kitchener-Waterloo are experiencing and expecting a lower number of units sold over the coming months.
Luxury market is relatively strong
Apart from Oakville and Muskoka, average residential sale prices in Ontario are likely to remain steady or decrease between two to 10% in the Fall months. The luxury market has remained resilient and in-demand among buyers in Oakville, which is a contributing factor to the modest 2% average residential sale price increase expected in Oakville this Fall.
Conditional offers have made a comeback
The return of conditional offers has been a prevalent trend across the province. Echoing many regions across Canada, the Greater Toronto housing market are expected to regain balance in 2023, although low inventory will continue to place upward pressure on prices. Some sought-after GTA hot pockets and neighbourhoods continue to attract higher prices even in the current overall market situation.
Acknowledging that low inventory combined with affordability are major issues at hand, the Canadian government has announced some key initiatives that aim to double construction under the Affordable Housing Innovation Fund and Rent-to-Own stream.