GTA Real Estate Market September 2023 Summary
As per the September 2023 TRREB Market Watch Report, GTA home sales faced challenges during the month due to high borrowing costs, inflation, uncertainty about future Bank of Canada decisions, and slower economic growth. Despite more listings available in the market, the average selling price increased compared to the previous year.
In the short term, borrowing costs are expected to stay high until mid-2024. Afterward, they are anticipated to decrease, leading to increased demand for homes in the latter half of the next year, driven by lower rates and a growing population.
There were 4,642 home sales in September which was a 7.1% decrease from September 2022. The decline in sales was more noticeable for homes, including semi-detached houses and townhouses. Additionally, on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis, sales slightly decreased.
New listings of homes for sale significantly increased compared to the previous year, given the low levels in September 2022. The number of listings also showed an upward trend on a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis. The market appeared more balanced in the summer and early fall, with more listings compared to sales. This might provide some home buyers with increased negotiation power, at least in the short term, which could help counteract the impact of high borrowing costs.
TRREB’s annual consumer polling has shown that half of intending home buyers in Toronto will be first-time home buyers in any given year. The average price of a condo apartment in Toronto is over $700,000. Yet, the first-time buyer exemption threshold for the City’s upfront land transfer tax has remained at $400,000 for about 15 years. It is commendable that the Toronto City Council has asked for a report on a more appropriate exemption level moving forward.
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