GTA Rental Market 2023 Performance & 2024 Outlook
Robust Condominium Apartment Leasing Trends in Q4 2023
As per Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)’s Rental Market Report for Q4 2023, the condominium apartment leasing market in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) displayed continued strength. The MLS® data revealed a noteworthy surge in year-over-year lease transactions, indicating a thriving rental activity.
However, the rate of annual increase in the number of units available for rent surpassed that of transactions, providing renters with a broader selection and contributing to a more moderate pace of rent growth compared to the first half of the year.
According to TRREB’s MLS® System, the number of condominium apartment rental transactions experienced a substantial year-over-year increase of 12.6%, reaching a total of 9,745 in the fourth quarter of 2023. Concurrently, the number of rental listings also saw a significant annual rise, escalating by 46%.
TRREB noted the tightness of the rental market in the GTA, anticipating its continuation due to the expected population growth. However, a positive development in the second half of 2023 is also noted, as the condominium apartment rental market witnessed a welcomed increase in listing supply. This, in turn, temporarily slowed the pace of average rent growth, providing a brief respite for renters in the region.
The fourth quarter of 2023 showcased a dynamic condominium apartment leasing market in the GTA, with robust transactional activity, increased rental listings, and a measured growth in average rents, reflecting the ongoing interplay of market forces in the region.
Affordability challenges for potential homebuyers, driven by elevated borrowing costs, further contributed to the sustained demand for rental properties.
Q4 2023 Average GTA Rents | ||
| Apartment | Townhouse | |
| Bachelor | $2,131 | $1,527 |
| 1 BR | $2,552 | $2,340 |
| 2 BR | $3,267 | $3,038 |
| 3 BR | $3,906 | $3,529 |
In terms of rental costs, the average rent for a one-bedroom condominium apartment experienced a modest 2.2% increase, reaching $2,552 in the fourth quarter of 2023. Similarly, the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment rose by 3.7%, reaching $3,267 over the same period.
Find out how rent increase works.
| Summary of Rental Transactions – All TRREB Areas – Apartments – Q4 2023 | ||||||||||
| All Apartments | Bachelor | One-Bedroom | Two-Bedroom | Three Bedroom | ||||||
| Total Listed | Total Leased | Leased | Avg. Lease Rate | Leased | Avg. Lease Rate | Leased | Avg. Lease Rate | Leased | Avg. Lease Rate | |
| All TRREB Areas | 21,673 | 9,745 | 312 | $2,131 | 5,766 | $2,552 | 3,354 | $3,267 | 313 | $3,906 |
| Burlington | 156 | 80 | 0 | – | 39 | $2,431 | 165 | $3,017 | 11 | $3,382 |
| Halton Hills | 2 | 2 | 0 | – | 0 | – | 2 | $2,550 | 0 | – |
| Milton | 137 | 44 | 0 | – | 23 | $2,311 | 19 | $2,721 | 2 | $3,300 |
| Oakville | 747 | 266 | 0 | – | 154 | $2,442 | 106 | $3,055 | 6 | $3,467 |
| Brampton | 355 | 145 | 4 | $1,962 | 480 | $2,516 | 473 | $2,975 | 36 | $3,438 |
| Mississauga | 1,731 | 847 | 3 | $2,033 | 426 | $2,543 | 390 | $3,033 | 28 | $3,528 |
| City of Toronto | 16,147 | 7,026 | 292 | $2,156 | 4,324 | $2,573 | 2,182 | $3,415 | 228 | $4,050 |
| All York Region | 2,119 | 1,226 | 7 | $1,964 | 700 | $2,504 | 484 | $3,048 | 35 | $3,696 |
| Vaughan | 955 | 543 | 6 | $2,028 | 314 | $2,443 | 210 | $2,991 | 13 | $3,804 |
| All Durham Region | 161 | 72 | 8 | $1,540 | 33 | $2,313 | 29 | $2,668 | 2 | $2,875 |
| Ajax | 9 | 6 | 0 | – | 2 | $2,475 | 4 | $2,756 | 0 | – |
| Oshawa | 71 | 24 | 8 | $1,540 | 10 | $2,119 | 5 | $2,400 | 1 | $2,900 |
| Whitby | 15 | 10 | 0 | – | 3 | $2,600 | 6 | $2,820 | 1 | $2,850 |
GTA Rental Market Map
Summary of Rental Transactions – All TRREB Areas – Townhouses – Q4 2023 | ||||||||||
| All Townhouses | Bachelor | One-Bedroom | Two-Bedroom | Three Bedroom | ||||||
| Total Listed | Total Leased | Leased | Avg. Lease Rate | Leased | Avg. Lease Rate | Leased | Avg. Lease Rate | Leased | Avg. Lease Rate | |
| All TRREB Areas | 1,827 | 769 | 3 | $1,527 | 55 | $2,340 | 398 | $3,038 | 313 | |
| Burlington | 47 | 24 | 0 | – | 0 | – | 15 | $2,850 | 9 | $3,206 |
| Halton Hills | 1 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | – | 0 | – | 0 | – |
| Milton | 15 | 8 | 0 | – | 0 | – | 4 | $2,781 | 4 | $3,096 |
| Oakville | 144 | 62 | 0 | – | 1 | $2,600 | 45 | $2,870 | 16 | $3,445 |
| Brampton | 166 | 48 | 0 | – | 4 | $2,063 | 27 | $2,752 | 17 | $3,044 |
| Mississauga | 333 | 132 | 2 | $1,390 | 10 | $2,140 | 35 | $2,985 | 85 | $3,430 |
| City of Toronto | 753 | 329 | 0 | – | 33 | $2,481 | 176 | $3,243 | 120 | $3,813 |
| All York Region | 254 | 125 | 1 | $1,800 | 5 | $1,910 | 66 | $2,964 | 53 | $3,415 |
| Vaughan | 89 | 47 | 0 | – | 1 | $2,750 | 30 | $2,995 | 16 | $3,512 |
| All Durham Region | 110 | 40 | 0 | – | 2 | $2,525 | 29 | $2,713 | 9 | $2,906 |
| Ajax | 7 | 3 | 0 | – | 0 | – | 2 | $2,600 | 1 | $2,750 |
| Oshawa | 36 | 8 | 0 | – | 0 | – | 3 | $2,463 | 5 | $2,850 |
| Whitby | 12 | 2 | 0 | – | 0 | – | 0 | – | 2 | $2,900 |
Canadian Rents Hit 40-Year High in Early 2023
Earlier on in 2023, there was a concern as Canada was witnessing an uncontrollable surge in rents. Data on inflation suggested that rents were skyrocketing at the fastest rate in four decades nationwide, posing challenges for Canadians, especially those in low-income households.
According to Statistics Canada, the annual inflation rate climbed to 3.1% in November 2023. Within the consumer price index, key contributors to this surge were mortgage interest costs (29.8%), rent (7.4%), and food purchased from stores (4.7%). Economists argue that such rapid growth is unsustainable and could disproportionately affect low-income families.
Concerns were also raised about the impact of various federal and provincial subsidies, such as the Canada-Ontario Housing Benefit (COHB), potentially fueling further increases in rents.
Rental Market Overview
A comprehensive look at the rental landscape, provided by Rentals.ca and Urbanation, reveals that the average asking rents for all residential property types in Canada reached an all-time high of $2,178 by the end of 2023, marking a nearly 9% increase from the previous year.
Major urban centres, including Vancouver, Burnaby, Toronto, Mississauga, and North York, experienced the highest rental costs, while Saskatoon, Lethbridge, Regina, Fort McMurray, and Edmonton were identified as the more affordable markets.
The driving force behind this rental inflation is largely attributed to a shortage of supply. Expectations for improved stock levels throughout the year in 2024 may provide some relief, but economists suggest that rental demand will remain strong, albeit moderating compared to 2023.
Introduction of a New Rental Housing Market Index
In response to these challenges, Statistics Canada has initiated a new project, the rental housing market index, aimed at monitoring rental trends in the Canadian real estate market. The index seeks to provide valuable insights to landlords, tenants, and policymakers to facilitate informed decision-making.
Challenges of Affordability for Renters
While the discourse on housing affordability has primarily revolved around property acquisition post-COVID-19, the high cost of renting apartments and houses has been overlooked. Demand has significantly outpaced supply, especially in major urban centres, with immigration being a notable factor.
The federal government’s plan to welcome millions of immigrants in the coming years, while beneficial for the economy, has raised concerns about its impact on housing affordability. The Bank of Canada and other economists have warned that unless there is a substantial increase in home construction, population growth, driven by immigration, will continue to push up rents and home prices.
The Housing-Supply Conundrum
The mismatch between population growth and available housing units has been highlighted by officials. The recent influx of newcomers has exacerbated existing housing supply challenges, prompting questions about the potential limitations on Canada’s future growth and the implications for inflation. While newcomers contribute to Canada’s labor force and economic growth, the current housing challenges may pose obstacles to sustained development.
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