REMAX 2024 Housing Market Outlook – Ontario & GTA

In our last blog post titled GTA Real estate trends and outlook for 2024, we had presented our opinions and projections based on our 2023 in-market experience with our home buyers, home sellers and real estate investors across the GTA.

In this blog post, we are sharing with you some key highlights and projections based on a survey conducted by RE/MAX Canada. While the full report is exhaustive, we have picked out relevant snippets on Ontario, GTA and Mississauga.

REMAX 2024 Housing Market Outlook – Key Survey Findings

Homeownership in Canada remains a steadfast belief among consumers, undeterred by affordability challenges. The anticipated 0.5% rise in average prices in 2024 underscores the resilience of this perception.

Despite obstacles in the real estate market in 2023, such as a persistent housing shortage and a complex interest rate environment, Canadians express enduring optimism about homeownership, as highlighted in a recent RE/MAX Canada report.

  • The RE/MAX 2024 Housing Market Outlook Report indicates that a significant majority (73%) of Canadians consider homeownership the best investment, a sentiment that remains consistent year after year.
  • Looking ahead, the RE/MAX network foresees a slightly more active market in 2024, with an expected 0.5% increase in national average residential sale prices, and 61% of surveyed regions anticipating a rise in unit sales.
  • A survey conducted by Leger for RE/MAX Canada as part of their report reveals that 72% of Canadians emphasize the importance of considering housing diversity as governments plan to enhance housing supply.
  • Examining home-buying trends in 2024, the Leger survey notes that 41% of Canadians believe climate change will influence their choice of where to purchase a home.
  • Additionally, 21% are exploring alternative homeownership, while 17% are considering inter-provincial or city moves for greater affordability in preferred neighborhoods.
  • Although expectations hint at a cooling real estate market in the first half of 2024, Canadians’ perception of real estate as a solid investment remains steadfast since 2022, with a consistent 73% viewing homeownership as the best investment.
  • However, more than half of respondents (54%) express concern about potential interest rate increases impacting their ability to participate in the real estate market, a concern particularly pronounced among millennial homebuyers, with 73% agreeing with this statement.
REMAX 2024 Housing Market Outlook

SURVEY INSIGHTS:

• More than half (54%) of Canadians are concerned that further interest rate increases will impact their ability to engage in the real estate market in 2024.

• Six in 10 Canadians (59%) feel confident that working with a professional real estate agent will bring value to the process.

• Almost half (47%) of Canadians believe Canada is one of the best countries in the world to purchase or own real estate.

Looking back at 2023 Real Estate Market

2023 has been a demanding year for Canadian individuals involved in buying and selling homes. They have experienced the impact of a significant housing shortage and the elevated cost of living.

It’s been a challenging year for Canadian homebuyers and sellers, who have been feeling the effects of a severe housing shortage and the high cost of living, but much like Canada’s housing market, Canadians have stayed resilient. Historically, real estate has given owners excellent returns and strong financial security – and that hasn’t changed. – CHRISTOPHER ALEXANDER, PRESIDENT, RE/MAX CANADA

Nevertheless, akin to the resilience observed in Canada’s housing market, Canadians themselves have remained steadfast.

Throughout history, real estate has consistently provided property owners with substantial returns and robust financial stability, and this fundamental aspect remains unchanged.

Ontario Real Estate Market Outlook

In Ontario, residential real estate prices display a varied pattern, similar to Western Canada.

  • Forecasts suggest a 2% increase in Thunder Bay and Ottawa, and a three percent rise in London.
  • Hamilton, Niagara, and York Region are expected to see a 3.5% surge, while Sudbury and Burlington might experience a 4% uptick.
  • Kingston anticipates a 4.5% increase, Muskoka and Haliburton foresee a 5% climb, and Oakville is poised for a 7% upswing.
  • Windsor and Sault Ste. Marie lead with a 7.5% projected increase.
  • On the other hand, Mississauga, Brampton, North Bay, and Kenora are expected to maintain stable prices in 2024.
  • Peterborough and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) project a slight decline of 3% in average residential prices, with Durham Region and Grand Bend foreseeing a 5% decrease.

In 2023, varied market conditions in Ontario favoured buyers in many regions, including Niagara, Mississauga, Durham Region, Brampton, Grand Bend, North Bay, Muskoka, Haliburton, and Kingston.

The slower market we’ve been experiencing across the country this fall could be an early indicator of an active 2024, as reflected in the modest price increase and sales outlook for next year, and the balancing of conditions in several regions across the country. – CHRISTOPHER ALEXANDER, PRESIDENT, RE/MAX CANADA

Despite fluctuations, Hamilton and Burlington shifted to buyer’s markets in Q4 of 2023. Predictions for 2024 suggest potential balance in Mississauga, Brampton, Simcoe County, Muskoka, and Haliburton.

The GTA market is expected to achieve balance in 2024, intermittently favoring buyers.

Considering the impact of interest rates and the cost of living, Ontario’s housing market experienced fluctuations in 2023, with 61% of regions expected to maintain stability in 2024.

Affordability challenges have led Canadians to explore properties accommodating additional tenants to offset costs. Homes with income-generating basement apartments are gaining popularity.

Similar to Western Canada and Atlantic Canada, the cost of living and interest rates are crucial factors influencing Ontario markets. Homebuyers in the province increasingly consider factors such as public transportation access, green spaces, and proximity to preferred schools.

The slower market we’ve been experiencing across the country this fall could be an early indicator of an active 2024, as reflected in the modest price increase and sales outlook for next year, and the balancing of conditions in several regions across the country. – CHRISTOPHER ALEXANDER, PRESIDENT, RE/MAX CANADA

GTA 2024 housing marketGTA Outlook

Between 2022 and 2023, the average sale price in the Greater Toronto housing market dropped by 5.9% (from $1,203,916 to $1,132,681), with a 13.5% decrease in the number of sales (from 67,452 to 58,367).

The GTA has been a seller’s market in 2023, transitioning to more of a buyer’s or balanced market depending on the neighborhood in the future.

In 2024, average residential sale prices are expected to decrease by three percent, while the number of sales is likely to increase by 10.4%.

The top three neighborhoods in the GTA are Durham region, known for affordability and value; Markham/Richmond Hill, marked by improved affordability; and Downtown Toronto, appreciated for its access to public transit and walkability.

Regarding new construction trends, the region is witnessing a decline in the start of condo apartment units. Smaller condo units are gaining popularity, with a heightened focus on location and amenities such as patios, barbecues, and fitness facilities.

However, construction costs are surpassing current market values.

Mississauga 2024 housing marketMississauga Outlook

The Mississauga housing market witnessed a 5.5% year-over-year decrease in the average sale price between 2022 and 2023 (from $1,130,192 to $1,068,367), accompanied by a 16.8% decline in the number of sales (from 6,176 to 5,137).

The average sales price across all property types is expected to remain steady in 2024, while the number of sales is projected to increase by 20%.

The housing market is poised to shift from a buyer’s market to a balanced market in 2024.

In 2024, the top three most desirable neighborhoods in Mississauga are anticipated to be the City Centre, Hurontario, and Erin Mills.

Condominiums are expected to experience high demand due to an influx of individuals and newcomers seeking affordable properties amidst the rising cost of living.

While some buyers explore duplexes and triplexes to potentially offset mortgage payments through renting out basements, full floors, or specific units, first-time homebuyers are hesitant to enter the market due to the current high-interest rates environment, delaying their plans.

Despite condominium prices stabilizing at a three-year low, increased demand is anticipated in the coming months.

Buyers in the region prioritize access to public transportation, amenities, and public services, influencing neighborhood location and final purchase decisions.

Key Trends:

  • In 2024, the Mississauga region is projected to transition to balanced market conditions.
  • Condominiums are poised to experience heightened demand, driven by their affordability, priced slightly above $640,000. Additionally, there is growing interest in duplexes and triplexes as a potential means to offset monthly mortgage payments.
  • The luxury housing segment is predominantly attracting a boomer audience, with homes priced around $3,100,000, particularly in the Lorne Park area.
  • Mississauga currently has 50 new development projects; however, numerous projects are facing delays attributed to issues in the supply chain and labor constraints.

About TEAM KALIA

Team Kalia is an award-winning team as well as a trusted name in the GTA real estate market with top customer ratings and reviews. Our team members work full-time as REALTORS®, meaning you can be assured of prompt and professional service!

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Choosing Team Kalia means partnering with a full-time and experienced local real estate team, whether you are looking to buy a condo, a townhome, a semi-detached, detached or an income-generating property.

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